Ecuador Weather Forecast: Detailed Rainfall Projections for January–March 2025

The Ecuadorian National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (Inamhi) has released its rainfall predictions for the first quarter of 2025. These forecasts, based on historical climate data from 1985 to 2015, provide insights into expected rainfall patterns across the Coast, Highlands, and Amazon regions.

Rainfall Forecast by Region

1. Coastal Region (Litoral)

Rainfall on the coast is expected to remain within normal ranges, with specific variations across the months:

- January and February: Rainfall will be normal or slightly below normal, resulting in below-average precipitation levels for these months.

- March: Rainfall is projected to increase, returning to normal levels by the end of the quarter.

Expected Precipitation Levels (Monthly Averages):

- January: 302 mm inland, 71 mm along the coastal strip.

- February: 397 mm inland, 119 mm along the coastal strip.

- March: 396 mm inland, 96 mm along the coastal strip.

Overall, the coastal region will experience below-normal rainfall in January and February, with precipitation normalizing in March.

2. Highlands Region (Sierra)

Rainfall in the Inter-Andean region will generally range between normal and slightly above-normal levels, with a gradual increase throughout the quarter:

- January: 117 mm.

- February: 142 mm.

- March: 168 mm (highest levels).

Precipitation in the highlands will stay within normal ranges, with some areas experiencing slightly above-average rainfall, especially as the quarter progresses toward March.

3. Amazon Region

Rainfall patterns in the Amazon will vary between the plains and the Andean foothills:

- Plains: Rainfall will be normal or slightly below normal.

- Foothills of the Andes: Above-normal rainfall is expected.

Expected Precipitation Levels (Monthly Averages):

- January: 187 mm.

- February: 212 mm.

- March: 246 mm.

In the Amazon region, rainfall will increase steadily over the three months. By March, the plains will reach normal rainfall levels, while the Andean foothills will experience above-normal precipitation.

Understanding the Forecast

Inamhi emphasized that these forecasts, based on the CWRF numerical model, offer close approximations of rainfall trends but are not guaranteed to be 100% accurate. The predictions are further supported by global climate monitoring models, including data from the Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS), developed in collaboration with the European Union’s Joint Research Center and other international institutions.