Power outages: current situation and what to expect in the future

Since September 23, 2024, Ecuador has been experiencing its worst power crisis in 15 years, with daily blackouts lasting up to 14 hours. President Daniel Noboa has promised that the outages will end by December 2024, but no exact date has been given. Experts, however, warn that the country could face similar issues in 2025 and beyond, due to structural problems in the power sector. Here's what you need to know:

The Current Situation

- Energy Shortage: Ecuador is currently 1,500 megawatts short of meeting its energy needs, despite receiving additional power from Colombia since mid-November.

- Hydropower Dependency: Ecuador relies heavily on hydroelectric power, which accounts for 69% of its energy capacity. Severe droughts since August 2024 have cut this supply drastically.

- Thermal Plants Struggle: Thermal plants, which should compensate during droughts, are underperforming due to old infrastructure and lack of maintenance.

Why Are Blackouts Happening?

1. Unfulfilled Energy Expansion: Over the past decade, Ecuador needed an additional 1,951 megawatts of capacity to match growing demand, but investments were insufficient.

2. Drought: The current drought has halved hydroelectric output. For instance, Paute-Integral, the largest hydro complex, is operating at only 15% capacity.

3. Aging Infrastructure: Both hydro and thermal plants are outdated, and technical failures are common.

Government’s Efforts

- The government has recovered 479 megawatts from thermal plants in the past six months.

- Plans are in place to add 7,400 megawatts of capacity by 2032, but experts say this is overly ambitious.

What to Expect?

- Daily Blackouts: The outages are expected to continue until December 2024.

- Future Vulnerabilities: Climate change may bring longer, more severe droughts, potentially causing recurring crises unless significant reforms are made.

Recommendations

- Prepare for Extended Outages: Stock up on flashlights, power banks, and non-perishable food.

- Plan for Unpredictability: Power cuts may last longer than expected or occur outside scheduled times.

- Stay Updated: Follow reliable local sources for blackout schedules and updates.

Source: Primicias.