October Set for More Severe Blackouts Due to Lack of Rain and Reduced Energy Imports from Colombia

Ecuador is bracing for more intense blackouts in October as the country faces a worsening energy crisis. The combination of drought conditions affecting hydroelectric plants and Colombia cutting its electricity exports is putting further strain on Ecuador's power supply.

Hydroelectric Dependency

Ecuador relies on hydroelectric plants for 70% of its electricity, according to Diego Gordón, Executive Director of Britcham UIO. However, these plants are heavily dependent on rainfall to maintain river flows. The country is now experiencing its worst dry season in 61 years, with river levels, particularly in Cuenca, dangerously low. The situation is dire, as the Tomebamba, Yanuncay, and Tarqui rivers have become so shallow that people can walk across them.

The Mazar dam, Ecuador’s largest reservoir, is nearing its minimum operational level. As of September 18, it was just six meters above that threshold, and if it drops further, the Mazar, Molino, and Sopladora hydroelectric plants—which generate 38% of the country's electricity—will be forced to shut down.

Early Dry Season

Energy expert Ricardo Buitrón notes that while the dry season typically begins in October, it started early this year in August. The Mazar dam is designed to accumulate water during the rainy season to supply power during the dry months, but with reduced rainfall, this strategy is now at risk. If Mazar’s water levels continue to fall, the energy shortfall will worsen, leading to more frequent and severe blackouts.

Cloud Seeding Efforts

In an effort to induce rain, the government has considered cloud seeding, a technique that involves releasing silver iodide into clouds to stimulate precipitation. However, Fernando Salinas, another energy analyst, points out that this method requires cloud cover, which has been limited due to high temperatures and intense UV radiation.

Colombia Reducing Energy Exports

To make up for the domestic energy shortfall, Ecuador has been importing electricity from Colombia, which can supply up to 450 megawatts. However, Colombia has also been affected by drought and energy constraints, reducing its exports to as low as 369 megawatts. If Colombia continues to limit its energy supply to Ecuador, the power crisis will deepen.

Energy Minister Antonio Goncalves warned that the government’s contingency measures will not fully come into effect until November and December, when additional barges and land-based generators are expected to become operational.

Short-Term Solutions

The government has declared an emergency and contracted 928 megawatts of additional energy, including 340 megawatts from barges and 588 megawatts from land-based generators. One barge is already supplying 100 megawatts, and efforts are underway to increase output at Termogas Machala, boosting production from 991 megawatts to 1,591 megawatts. Negotiations with private companies to use their energy generation facilities are also ongoing.

Despite these efforts, Ecuador faces a critical period in October, with more frequent and longer-lasting blackouts likely if rain doesn’t come and Colombia further limits its energy exports.