If you've been feeling extra chilly in Cuenca, you're not alone. The city is going through a particularly cold and rainy summer season, with temperatures dipping between 8 and 12°C in the mornings.

According to Rigoberto Guerrero, deputy manager of Environmental Management at ETAPA EP, the culprit is thick cloud cover, which blocks sunlight and prevents the atmosphere from warming up. That’s why the cold feels even more intense than the actual temperature.

More rain than usual

On top of the cold, Cuenca has seen above-average rainfall this February—90 to 110 mm, compared to the usual 60 to 70 mm. While the rainy season typically kicks off in March and April, this year it arrived early and stronger than expected.

Looking ahead, rainfall is expected to gradually increase through the first half of 2025, before giving way to a drier season from May to August.

Flooding and river alerts

The heavy rains have saturated the soil, increasing the risks of river overflows, landslides, and falling trees. As of February 17, 2025:

• Tomebamba River entered a pre-alert phase.

• Machángara and Yanuncay Rivers reached alert levels.

María Verónica Polo, ETAPA EP’s manager, warned that river levels will stay high and urged residents to avoid riverbanks, parks, and walkways until conditions improve.

Stay safe: precautionary measures

The Municipal Cleaning Company (EMAC EP) is advising residents to:

✅ Avoid standing under large or leaning trees.

✅ Keep the streets clean—don’t litter, as trash can block sewers and lead to flooding.

Rising river levels have already eroded riverbanks, increasing the risk of falling trees. Luis Quituisaca, a Green Areas Technician, assured that specialists are inspecting at-risk trees, prioritizing those near roads, schools, and parks.

If a tree poses an immediate danger, it's removed right away. Otherwise, a request must be sent to the Ministry of the Environment for authorization.

Road closure for tree removal

To prevent accidents, the Municipality has announced that Avenida 3 de Noviembre will be closed from February 19 to 21, between Avenida de las Américas and Los Cedros, from 7:00 AM to 4:00 PM for emergency tree removal. Alternate routes: Ordoñez Lasso, Ricardo Darquea, and Víctor M. Albornoz.

Is climate change to blame?

According to Guerrero, climate change is making extreme weather events more frequent. Cuenca has already seen a pattern of alternating between long droughts and intense rainy seasons.

For instance:

• 2023 had the longest recorded drought in Cuenca’s history.

• 2024 broke that record with 160 days of hydrological drought.

What used to happen once in decades is now happening year after year—a clear sign that climate change is reshaping the region’s weather patterns.

Source: El Mercurio.

The Ecuadorian National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (Inamhi) has released its rainfall predictions for the first quarter of 2025. These forecasts, based on historical climate data from 1985 to 2015, provide insights into expected rainfall patterns across the Coast, Highlands, and Amazon regions.

Rainfall Forecast by Region

1. Coastal Region (Litoral)

Rainfall on the coast is expected to remain within normal ranges, with specific variations across the months:

- January and February: Rainfall will be normal or slightly below normal, resulting in below-average precipitation levels for these months.

- March: Rainfall is projected to increase, returning to normal levels by the end of the quarter.

Expected Precipitation Levels (Monthly Averages):

- January: 302 mm inland, 71 mm along the coastal strip.

- February: 397 mm inland, 119 mm along the coastal strip.

- March: 396 mm inland, 96 mm along the coastal strip.

Overall, the coastal region will experience below-normal rainfall in January and February, with precipitation normalizing in March.

2. Highlands Region (Sierra)

Rainfall in the Inter-Andean region will generally range between normal and slightly above-normal levels, with a gradual increase throughout the quarter:

- January: 117 mm.

- February: 142 mm.

- March: 168 mm (highest levels).

Precipitation in the highlands will stay within normal ranges, with some areas experiencing slightly above-average rainfall, especially as the quarter progresses toward March.

3. Amazon Region

Rainfall patterns in the Amazon will vary between the plains and the Andean foothills:

- Plains: Rainfall will be normal or slightly below normal.

- Foothills of the Andes: Above-normal rainfall is expected.

Expected Precipitation Levels (Monthly Averages):

- January: 187 mm.

- February: 212 mm.

- March: 246 mm.

In the Amazon region, rainfall will increase steadily over the three months. By March, the plains will reach normal rainfall levels, while the Andean foothills will experience above-normal precipitation.

Understanding the Forecast

Inamhi emphasized that these forecasts, based on the CWRF numerical model, offer close approximations of rainfall trends but are not guaranteed to be 100% accurate. The predictions are further supported by global climate monitoring models, including data from the Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS), developed in collaboration with the European Union’s Joint Research Center and other international institutions.