Ecuador faced widespread confusion and frustration on Monday, September 23, 2024, as scheduled power outages were delayed, leaving citizens in the dark—literally and figuratively.

What Happened?

While electric companies had initially announced that the outages would start at 6:00 a.m., blackouts didn't begin until after 8:00 a.m. in many areas, including major cities like Quito, Guayaquil, and Cuenca. The government of President Daniel Noboa had warned that power outages would last from Monday, September 23 to Sunday, September 29, due to Ecuador's ongoing electricity crisis.

Late Start Causes Confusion

Schedules for the blackouts were released around midnight on Sunday, but when the power didn't cut off as expected early Monday morning, citizens took to social media to express their confusion and dissatisfaction. The first outages were supposed to begin at 6:00 a.m., but many didn’t experience blackouts until hours later.

Reasons for the Delay

Centrosur, the electric company that serves the Austro region, explained that the delays were due to improved energy conditions. They stated that the National Electricity Operator Cenace ordered outages to start at 7:00 a.m. instead of the originally planned time.

According to Centrosur, the disconnections are being executed under Cenace's orders, and while the first phase of outages was delayed, the rest of the day’s schedule remained in effect unless Cenace issued further changes.

Government Response

Inés Manzano, Ecuador's Minister of Environment and the head of the National Emergency Operations Committee (COE), took responsibility for the late release of the outage schedules. In an interview with Ecuavisa, she apologized, saying, "I will publicly apologize for releasing the information so late. I take responsibility for that."

Manzano explained that the delay in announcing the schedules led to electric distributors postponing the start of the blackouts on Monday morning.

Blackouts Begin

Despite the delays, reports began coming in from citizens after 8:00 a.m. that power outages had started across several cities, with disruptions continuing as the day progressed.

As the outages continue for the rest of the week, citizens are advised to keep an eye on updated schedules and announcements from their local electric companies.

Ecuador is bracing for more intense blackouts in October as the country faces a worsening energy crisis. The combination of drought conditions affecting hydroelectric plants and Colombia cutting its electricity exports is putting further strain on Ecuador's power supply.

Hydroelectric Dependency

Ecuador relies on hydroelectric plants for 70% of its electricity, according to Diego Gordón, Executive Director of Britcham UIO. However, these plants are heavily dependent on rainfall to maintain river flows. The country is now experiencing its worst dry season in 61 years, with river levels, particularly in Cuenca, dangerously low. The situation is dire, as the Tomebamba, Yanuncay, and Tarqui rivers have become so shallow that people can walk across them.

The Mazar dam, Ecuador’s largest reservoir, is nearing its minimum operational level. As of September 18, it was just six meters above that threshold, and if it drops further, the Mazar, Molino, and Sopladora hydroelectric plants—which generate 38% of the country's electricity—will be forced to shut down.

Early Dry Season

Energy expert Ricardo Buitrón notes that while the dry season typically begins in October, it started early this year in August. The Mazar dam is designed to accumulate water during the rainy season to supply power during the dry months, but with reduced rainfall, this strategy is now at risk. If Mazar’s water levels continue to fall, the energy shortfall will worsen, leading to more frequent and severe blackouts.

Cloud Seeding Efforts

In an effort to induce rain, the government has considered cloud seeding, a technique that involves releasing silver iodide into clouds to stimulate precipitation. However, Fernando Salinas, another energy analyst, points out that this method requires cloud cover, which has been limited due to high temperatures and intense UV radiation.

Colombia Reducing Energy Exports

To make up for the domestic energy shortfall, Ecuador has been importing electricity from Colombia, which can supply up to 450 megawatts. However, Colombia has also been affected by drought and energy constraints, reducing its exports to as low as 369 megawatts. If Colombia continues to limit its energy supply to Ecuador, the power crisis will deepen.

Energy Minister Antonio Goncalves warned that the government’s contingency measures will not fully come into effect until November and December, when additional barges and land-based generators are expected to become operational.

Short-Term Solutions

The government has declared an emergency and contracted 928 megawatts of additional energy, including 340 megawatts from barges and 588 megawatts from land-based generators. One barge is already supplying 100 megawatts, and efforts are underway to increase output at Termogas Machala, boosting production from 991 megawatts to 1,591 megawatts. Negotiations with private companies to use their energy generation facilities are also ongoing.

Despite these efforts, Ecuador faces a critical period in October, with more frequent and longer-lasting blackouts likely if rain doesn’t come and Colombia further limits its energy exports.

Ecuador will experience a nationwide power outage from 10:00 PM on September 18 to 6:00 AM on September 19, 2024, due to maintenance on four key substations. This preventive measure aims to address the country's ongoing energy crisis, with work being done on primary equipment and transformers in locations such as Macas, Santa Elena, Milagro, and Molino.

According to the newspaper El Mercurio, the province of Azuay has been without intense rains for 19 days, resulting in a decrease in electricity generation at hydroelectric plants in the province. These plants produce the majority of the energy demanded in Ecuador. Therefore, the risk of new outages cannot be ruled out.

There are four hydroelectric plants in the province. Three of them are fed by the Paute River:

- Mazar

- Paute – Molino

- Sopladora

These plants are located east of Cuenca.

The Minas – San Francisco hydroelectric plant is fed by the Jubones River. This plant is located south of Santa Isabel along the road from Cuenca to Machala.

In the article, Fabián Montaleza, an environmental engineer and former advisor to the Association of Municipalities of Ecuador (AME), explained that the dry season was forecasted to begin in September but started earlier. That is why the National Energy Corporation (CENACE) is implementing a plan to keep the reservoirs of Mazar, Paute – Molino, and Sopladora in optimal conditions to ensure the energy supply. In June of this year, these three plants produced 36.1% of the country's hydroelectric energy, but their production dropped by nearly 17% due to the lack of rainfall. Montaleza pointed out that this drought is likely to extend until November, so he urged the population to save water and take precautions in case of “blackouts.”

The low level of the rivers is also visible in Cuenca. All four rivers in Cuenca eventually feed the Paute River. According to Rigoberto Guerrero from ETAPA EP, the city has experienced light “showers,” but these are not enough to recharge the river levels. In 2023, Cuenca experienced a 118-day drought, which ended in December 2023. There were no water supply cuts, thanks to ETAPA EP's precautions.

Ecuador is going through an energy crisis that has triggered scheduled power outages of up to 11 hours since mid-April. In a press conference on Tuesday, May 14, the Minister of Energy, Roberto Luque, announced that the Scheduled power outages are suspended until Sunday, May 26, 2024. 

This period includes the holiday on Friday, May 24, when the Battle of Pichincha is commemorated.

The suspension of scheduled power outages is possible because of favorable weather conditions. No energy has been imported from Colombia since Monday, May 13.

Blackouts are still possible

The minister recalled that unscheduled blackouts are still possible due to problems at the Coca Codo Sinclair plant.

Power outages are also still possible due to maintenance work. This can be especially the case in the provinces of Guayas, Los Ríos, Sucumbíos and Manabí. Disconnections can also happen in sectors of the cities of Durán, Lago Agrio and Portoviejo. The minister promised that these outages would be communicated at least 24 hours in advance.

The Minister of Energy, Andrea Arrobo, announced on Monday, December 4, 2023, that the scheduled power cuts in Ecuador would be suspended from December 15. The suspension of energy rationing is related to the Christmas and New Year festivities. “We understand that this is a crucial period during which blackouts should be avoided. We plan to suspend them for this duration through careful planning and effective management of water reserves,” said the Minister.

The duration of the suspension is currently unknown. The Minister emphasized that the more conscientious citizens are about the restricted use of electrical energy, the longer the period of blackout suspension can be extended until the rainy season returns.

Ecuador is currently grappling with an energy crisis due to low water levels, preventing power plants from generating sufficient electricity. As an emergency measure, planned power cuts are in effect. On average, these outages last two hours per day for each electricity connection.